Marvel, TMNT, Avatar, and The Hobbit — five cards I'm considering adding to my collection.

One of the things I want Pack Portfolio to do differently is not tell you that every card we discuss is a buy.

Sometimes I think a card is a great investment.

Sometimes I think a card is overpriced.

Sometimes I simply like a card enough that I'd like to own it if the price becomes right.

Those are very different opinions.

This week's Market Watch is a good example.

I'm watching five cards from some of Magic's biggest crossover properties:

And there's one card I'm deliberately leaving off the public list.

We'll get to that at the end.

The Pack Portfolio framework isn't simply:

We're looking at several different sources of potential value.

Do players actually want the card?

Would someone want to own it even if they weren't playing Magic?

How difficult could this particular version become to find?

Does the card have an established character, franchise, or cultural connection behind it?

Is there something unique about this specific printing?

Even if I love the card, am I willing to pay today's price?

That last question is especially important with the five cards below.

POSITION: WATCH
TARGET ENTRY: $100 - $130

I'm going to start with an opinion that might surprise some people:

That's actually part of what makes this interesting.

I'm not looking at Thanos primarily because I think the card is going to become a Commander staple.

I think a lot of the card's appeal comes from something much simpler:

It's Thanos.

And the comic-book-style artwork looks incredible.

The Borderless version has exactly the kind of visual presentation that can make someone want to own the card even if they have little interest in playing it.

That's important because I'm looking at Thanos much more as a collectible investment than a gameplay investment.

Thanos has already come down from the initial excitement surrounding the Marvel release.

That's exactly what I want to see.

I'm much more interested in buying a card after the initial hype starts to disappear than I am in buying it while everyone is excited about the newest set.

The current TCGplayer data in my research had the Borderless version around $150, with recent sales around that level.

That's still too high for me.

This card was over $200 at one point. It’s still falling and I'd rather wait for the price to keep falling, and hopefully add this card to my collection.

$130 or less

If I can find a clean Near Mint copy in that range, I'm interested.

Here's the bet I'm making:

Marvel is going to become an increasingly important part of Magic.

If Magic continues adding Marvel characters over the next several years, I think there's a possibility that the early Marvel cards become collectibles in their own right.

Thanos could benefit from that.

Not because I think Thanos is suddenly going to become a $500 Commander staple.

But because collectors may eventually look back at the first generations of Marvel Magic cards and want premium versions of the most recognizable characters.

Thanos is certainly one of those characters.

More Marvel cards could actually hurt this thesis.

If Magic eventually has hundreds of Marvel cards, Thanos may become less special.

There could also be additional versions of the character.

And if the card doesn't develop meaningful gameplay demand, we're relying heavily on collector interest.

That's why I'm not chasing it.

I want the price to come to me.

WATCH

Buy Zone: $130 or less

POSITION: WATCH
TARGET ENTRY: $100
ACCEPTABLE ENTRY: ~$120 Near Mint

Eddie Brock is another card where I don't think the gameplay itself is the primary investment thesis.

It's seeing some Commander play, which is helpful.

But personally, I think a lot of the value is being supported by:

Venom.

Marvel.

The artwork.

The comic-book treatment.

And that's enough to make me interested.

This is one of the cards I've actually been following since the Spider-Man release.

When the set came out, I was watching it around $90. I had a feeling it would spike after the new Marvel release, but sadly I waited to long.

Now we're seeing the card closer to the $130–$150 range, depending on the marketplace and specific sale.

That's a pretty significant move.

And it creates an interesting problem.

But I don't want to chase it.

I think the Borderless Foil Eddie Brock is primarily a collectible with some gameplay support underneath it.

That's not necessarily a bad thing.

In fact, some of my favorite collectible investments have multiple reasons people might want them.

A Commander player can want Eddie Brock because they play the card.

A Marvel fan can want Eddie Brock because they love Venom.

A collector can want the card because of the comic-book artwork.

That's a much stronger demand profile than having only one type of buyer.

$100

Around $120 Near Mint

Would I pay $150 today?

Probably not.

I'd rather wait and see whether the recent upward trend continues or cools off.

Because if the card gets away from me, that's okay.

Maybe one day I’ll trade for one.

I would rather miss a card than overpay for one.

WATCH

Dream Target: $100

Buy: ~$120 Near Mint if the trend continues

POSITION: WATCH
TARGET ENTRY: TBD — Looking for a little more Pullback

Combining the history and nostalgia of the TMNT brand. Shredder is probably the card on this week's list that I find the most interesting.

If you haven’t watched the old TV shows, you should go back and take a look!

The pixel-art, video-game-style treatment is incredibly unique.

I've seen similar pixel-art treatments used on hockey cards, and I've always thought that style had strong collector appeal.

It's different.

And different matters when you're talking about collectibles.

The Borderless Surge Foil has been coming down from its earlier levels.

When I first started watching this card my research had it around $124 on TCGplayer, while recent sales were closer to $100. It has since continued to fall, with prices hitting around $90 right now.

That's the kind of price movement I want to watch.

I'm not going to pretend that means the card has reached its bottom.

It hasn't.

But a declining price can eventually create an opportunity for collectors who liked the card all along.

There's also a real Magic component here.

Shredder isn't simply a piece of artwork.

He's a playable card, and Ninja strategies give him a potential gameplay audience.

That gives the card another potential source of demand.

But I don't want to rely on that alone.

My interest is really the combination:

TMNT + Shredder + unique pixel art + premium treatment + gameplay.

That's a pretty compelling collectible package.

I'm not setting an exact buy price yet.

I'm watching the market settle.

If Shredder continues falling, I'll become increasingly interested.

I'd rather buy it after the initial hype has completely worn off than while people are still chasing the newest TMNT cards.

WATCH

Looking for a little more pullback. Possible buy once the market flattens out.

POSITION: WATCH
TARGET ENTRY: TBD

This is probably the card on this week's list that I have the easiest time explaining why I want to own it.

Normally, when I'm buying a card primarily for its collectibility, I prefer foil.

Deflecting Swat is an exception.

This Avatar Showcase version doesn't come in the foil treatment I usually look for.

But I don't think that necessarily hurts it.

The artwork is unique.

The border is unique.

The card is extremely playable.

The card comes in a bundle box, limited supply.

And that's a combination I really like.

Deflecting Swat gives me more confidence because it already has a strong gameplay identity.

The card can be cast for free when you control your Commander and can change the targets of a spell or ability.

That's a powerful effect.

And unlike a speculative card where I'm hoping players eventually discover a use for it:

Players already want Deflecting Swat.

That's a major difference.

The Avatar Commander Bundle included 13 promo cards, and Deflecting Swat was one of the cards associated with that product.

That distribution is interesting to me.

As time passes, Commander Bundles get opened.

Cards get put into decks.

Cards get lost.

Cards get damaged.

Cards get absorbed into collections.

Eventually, some percentage of the original supply can become harder to locate in clean condition.

That doesn't automatically mean the card becomes scarce.

But it's a supply characteristic I'm interested in watching.

When researching for this article I had the Showcase Deflecting Swat around $70 -$80 on TCGplayer.

This card has something Thanos and Eddie Brock don't have to the same degree:

A player wants Deflecting Swat because it's Deflecting Swat.

An Avatar fan may want this particular version because of the artwork.

A collector may want it because the Showcase treatment is unique.

That's three potential sources of demand.

And that's exactly what I want to see.

I don't expect Deflecting Swat to suddenly explode.

Instead, I'm interested in it as a long-term collectible with established gameplay demand.

If the Avatar version becomes increasingly difficult to find while Commander players continue wanting Deflecting Swat, I think this specific version has a good chance of holding its value.

And if Avatar collectors begin placing a premium on the most desirable cards from the set, there could be additional upside.

Plus I want it for some of my decks!

WATCH

The card has been slowly increasing in price for the last few months now. I may look into getting a copy sooner rather than later.

POSITION: WATCH

The One Ring is different from almost everything else on this list.

This isn't a card I'm watching because I'm unsure whether people will want it.

People already want The One Ring.

The question is:

That's a very different question.

The One Ring has already established itself as an important Magic card.

That gives it something that purely collectible crossover cards don't necessarily have:

People want the card because they play it.

Then you add:

Hobbit

The One Ring

The controversial artwork

Surge Foil Borderless treatment

And suddenly you're looking at something with significant collector appeal as well.

The One Ring is arguably one of the strongest examples of what Pack Portfolio is looking for.

It's not just a random crossover card.

It's one of the most recognizable objects in one of the most recognizable fantasy stories ever created.

And Magic has already demonstrated that Hobbit themed cards can develop significant collector interest.

The question is whether this specific version becomes one of the versions people ultimately want.

That's what I'm watching.

The biggest risk is simple:

Price.

When a card is already highly desirable, the market knows it.

And when the market knows it, you can easily end up paying for years of expected appreciation before those years actually happen.

I don't want to do that.

I want to find the point where the collectible thesis is strong and the entry price makes sense. At the time of researching this, TCGplayer prices show this card around $580! Near release this card was selling for around $430, I’d like to watch this card get to those numbers again after the set hype cools down.

WATCH

Great card. Great collectible. Price matters. Filled with Drama and Controversy

Instead of using a large table that becomes difficult to read on mobile, I'd present the summary like this:

WATCH
Target: $100–$130
Thesis: Marvel collectible

WATCH
Target: $100 / ~$120 NM
Thesis: Marvel + Venom collectible

WATCH
Target: Pullback
Thesis: Unique treatment + gameplay

WATCH
Target: TBD
Thesis: Gameplay + Avatar collectible

WATCH
Target: Pullback
Thesis: Gameplay + Hobbit collectible

And notice something:

That's intentional.

A Market Watch isn't a shopping list.

It's a list of opportunities I'm researching.

I'm watching these cards for different reasons.

I'm waiting for the price to come down into the $130–$150 range.

I'd love $100, but I'd consider ~$120 Near Mint.

I'm waiting for the market to continue settling.

I'm watching supply and price after the initial Avatar product gets absorbed.

I'm watching the price because the underlying collectible thesis is already obvious.

The common theme?

I like the cards.

But liking a card isn't enough.

The price still has to make sense.

There was actually a sixth card I considered for this week's Market Watch.

But instead of including it in this week's Market Watch, I gave the card its own deep dive.

I've actually purchased this card, at $650. I’d like to keep a close eye on the price of this card, and make sure my investment is holding. I like this card so much, maybe I’ll buy more in the future. That’s just another reason why I added it to the Golden Pack.

The full research covers the scarcity of the Dwarvish printing, the probability of finding these cards, its collectibility, gameplay demand, and why I believe this particular version deserves a longer-term thesis.

Read Golden Pack #001 →

This week's Market Watch is a good example.

I like all five cards.

But I don't want to buy all five today.

That's important.

The price matters.

The supply matters.

The demand matters.

The timing matters.

And sometimes the best thing you can do is put a card on the watchlist and wait.

I don't want to pretend I'm always right.

If Thanos keeps falling after I buy it, I'll say so.

If Eddie Brock goes to $250 and I never find my $100 entry, I'll say so.

If Shredder's gameplay adoption disappears, I'll say so.

If Deflecting Swat gets more reprints, and the thesis changes, I'll say so.

And if The One Ring doubles?

We'll talk about why.

That's the point of documenting these ideas.

We're not trying to predict the future perfectly.

We're trying to develop a repeatable process for deciding:

This week I'm watching:

Thanos — because I think early Marvel Magic cards could become collectible, but I want a lower entry.

Eddie Brock — because I think Venom and the comic-book treatment are doing more of the work than the gameplay.

Shredder — because the pixel-art treatment is one of the coolest I've seen and the price is coming down.

Deflecting Swat — because it's a powerful Commander card wrapped in a unique Avatar collectible treatment.

The One Ring — because the gameplay and Hobbit collector theses overlap in a way very few cards can match.

And separately:

Mox Amber — Golden Pack #001.

The goal isn't to own every card we like.

The goal is to find the cards that are worth owning at the right price.

We'll watch the market.

We'll track the supply.

We'll look at gameplay.

We'll follow collectors.

We'll make our thesis.

And when the opportunity is right:

We'll buy.

That's the Pack Portfolio approach.

Our highest-conviction collectible investment ideas.

→ Explore The Golden Pack 

→ Check out the Latest Research 

Pack Portfolio publishes independent opinions and research for informational and educational purposes. This article represents the author's personal opinions and is not personalized financial advice. Trading cards and other collectibles are speculative assets and can lose value. Prices, availability, supply and demand can change rapidly. Readers should conduct their own research before purchasing or selling collectible assets.